Democrats can blame filibuster, gerrymandering, and even the core Senate structure for their failure to fulfill their New Deal wishes and Great Society dreams. But one problem they have is more fundamental: they are trying to run big programs with historically low majorities.

The party held as many as 59 Senate seats and north of 300 House seats when the main New Deal law was passed. Democrats enjoyed a 68-32 majority in the Senate and a 295-140 advantage in the House at the height of the Great Society. Democrats held about three-fifths of the majorities in both houses of Congress when they passed President Bill Clinton’s 1993 tax hike and ObamaCare, though both prevailed only by narrow margins.

Democrats are trying to push through a series of Liberal laws, anchored by a $ 3.5 trillion spending program, with a 50-50 Senate and just four more seats than a mere majority in the House. They feel justified in doing so not only because they believe their majorities should legitimately be larger without the structural inequalities mentioned above, but also because they are sure that Republicans would usher in the conservative equivalent in the same ones. circumstances.

After all, the Republicans passed three conservative Supreme Court justices – including one just before an election showed they were likely to lose – without obstruction. They passed Bush’s 2001 tax cuts through reconciliation in an equally divided Senate, though 12 Democrats joined them, and the 2003 sequel 51-49 in the same chamber.

Democrats have found themselves in a similar position to Republicans in recent years: their majorities are small by historical standards, but more ideologically homogeneous than before. They have a faction that is so determined to ensure purity that they are prepared to defeat the legislation, assuming the Congressional Progressive Caucus is truly prepared to use its influence in the manner of the Freedom Caucus. And because the majorities are so small, the moderates remain a faction that can disrupt any carefully crafted plans (even if they normally give in).

The political conditions Nancy Pelosi faces are not that different from those of John Boehner, the man who held out the hammer in tears the first time she became a speaker. Time will tell if the Democrats have more to show for their majorities in the end.